@Yascha_Mounk , Professor of Practice at John Hopkins University in the U.S., argues that the Democrats wrongly assumed that they would have a growing inbuilt majority because most white people voted Republican and most non white people voted Democratic. Yascha tells Nick, "actually what happened since 2016 is that Democrats gained significant share of a vote among white voters, but they lost an even more significant share of a vote among African Americans, among Asian Americans, among Native Americans, and especially among Latinos."

On race, trans-gender - you name it - Woke ideology cost the Democrats dear. Insistence on politically correct language also helped antagonise particularly working class, less educated people. Yascha says, "working class nonwhite people who may have pause at some of the things Trump says, who might not love Trump, but we say, you know, at least he's not going to judge me for saying the wrong word in some kind of way." Yascha describes as "absolutely false" the assumption that minorities were demanding major changes to the political system, adding, "most African Americans certainly wanted a reform of a police ... the majority rejected any attempt to fund the police less or to defund it'"

Yascha says progressives often ask why they should moderate their views when the radical right is "running on whatever crazy and extreme platform and they don't moderate." He adds, "the answer to that is 'We need to win and currently we're not winning.'" In contrast, Trump coldly and shrewdly saw off the threat over abortion rights by appearing to sell out his anti-abortion base. Yascha says Democrats never once compromised "to get to where the majority of American voters are."

Yascha is Founder and Editor-in-Chief of the Persuasion Substack - @JoinPersuasion - and also has his own Yascha Mounk Substack column. A man of many talents, Yascha hosts his own podcast, The Good Fight. Yascha's latest and highly acclaimed book - The Identity Trap: A Story of Ideas and Power in Our Time - is published by Penguin.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

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Nick Cohen chats with Tom Baldwin, journalist, author, biographer of Keir Starmer and former Labour spin doctor about how the new government handles future challenges from Donald Trump to clearing up the omni-shambles left by 14 years of Tory incompetence.

HANDLING THE ORANGE MENACE

Tom @TomBaldwin66 says Starmer will probably adopt a strategy of subtlety with Trump, saying, "The way to deal with Trump is not to match him for making noise or be your own kind of populist.

The answer is not to be like Trump; it's to be the opposite of Trump. It's not to turn the other cheek, but just to learn to ignore some things. Separate the froth of social media from the actual substance of his decisions ... He's going to try and get the best out of Trump. deals he can. He's going to try and find places of ambiguity and endurance, and do his best to exploit those, rather than reinforce dividing lines with him. And you know, that's what good prime ministers and good diplomats do."

TRUMP & THE FOLLY OF BREXIT

Nick points out that the #Trump victory has only further exposed the folly and recklessness of #brexit, particularly as it seems certain that Trump will launch a series of trade wars that will leave the UK dangerously exposed to a ruinous US tariff regime.

Trump is so economically illiterate that he appears not to understand that tariffs are paid by importers, not the exporting nation, and will mean higher prices for U.S. citizens if they want anything from oversees, from a new i-phone to a Japanese car. Tom says the UK maybe shafted trade-wise but still punches above its weight in terms of military power and security, both of which could prove crucial in the dangerous days ahead. Tom says, "we have real presence at the Table and we have Europe has a real interest in working with Britain in a way that it doesn't have to work for Britain in terms of giving us a better deal for our exports security is not about self interest. It's about mutual interest."

STARMER & THE POPULIST THREAT

Tom said a key Starmer objective is to see off the populist threat in the UK through good governance and improving public serves. If any criticism can be laid at the door of the new government, it's that it has not done enough to fully expose the disgraceful shit-show Labour inherited from the Tories. "I think the best argument you can make, particularly in government rather than opposition, is to actually show that governments can work," says Tom, "and that government can actually deliver real progress for working peoples, as government would put it."

The paperback version of Tom's bestseller, Keir Starmer, the biography, is out now with a new updated chapter on the election campaign and Labour's first few weeks of power..

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

SO, HOW DID WE ALL GET IT SO WRONG?

Pollsters and pundits predicted a close-run race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, but the consensus was that Harris had led consistently in the polls and that her victory seemed assured given the massive financial resources at her disposal, the apparent momentum and the slickness of her campaign, particularly compared to the bizarre circus of her opponent.

THE LEFT - IN A BUBBLE RAP?

Nick Cohen chats again to Washington DC-based journalist and podcaster Ben Cohen about Trump's shock landslide. Two weeks ago, Ben told The Lowdown he was confident that Harris would win - based mainly on so-called quality polling. Ben agreed that journalists from the left can operate inside a bubble and can often fail to realise how much people outside the bubble disregard or even hate them and their views. Leftist idealism and a belief in the stupidity and mendacity of the opponent can sleepwalk you into believing that people share your worldview, and are motivated by the same values.

FAILURE TO TACKLE WOKE & FACE UP TO REALITY

Ben @thedailybanter said Trump's opponents - buoyed up by the polls and the huge Harris crowds - possibly indulged in wishful thinking but they also made the mistake of not clamping down on the more wokeist tendencies on their side that played into Trump's hands and helped him scare voters away from Harris. "The left has eaten itself," Ben tells Nick."It's become a kind of parody of itself ... I've been writing about this for years, that identity politics is going to cost them the ballot because most of the country doesn't understand it."

Nick also says Joe Biden should have made it clear 2 years ago that he would only serve one term. Where did the predictions all go wrong and how much blame can be laid at the feet of the Democrats? In the end, Biden was forced off the Ticket after his calamitous presidential debate performance leaving Harris only 100 days to turn things around for the Democrats. Ben says, "it was... an insurmountable task."

THE INEVITABLE TRUMPIST TSUNAMI OF REVENGE AND STUPIDITY

Ben says everyone is filled with dread at the coming tsunami of Trumpist lunacy. Ben predicts Trump's regime will combine brutality with his trademark incompetence. He expects Trump to rip the U.S. - yet again - from the Paris Accords, undermine Nato and other international alliances - possibly fatally - betray Ukraine to Vladamir Putin and set up detention camps for immigrants - and that's just for starters. "We're in for a very scary few years, I would say," Ben tells Nick. "And we'll see how well American institutions can withstand the assault that's about to happen."

Ben adds, "The guy is a cockroach. He survived two assassination attempts, he survived two impeachment trials. He survived the democratic machine that raised, you know, several billion dollars, over a billion and a half dollars in two months, that's what Kamala Harris raised, and it was to defeat him."

Read Ben's The Banter Substack here and listen to his podcasts here.

Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 latest Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.