The Trump administration has implemented significant tariff increases, with the "average effective tariff rate... more than 15%." This is the "highest tariff rate since the late 1930s Great Depression era." These tariffs are "contributed to stagflation, a deceleration in economic growth, and an expected acceleration in inflation."

Labor Market Dynamics

Consumer and Business Confidence Declines

Fiscal Pressures and Debt Concerns. Mounting Deficit and Debt: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent aims to reduce annual deficits to 3% of GDP, but the House reconciliation bill (the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") is estimated by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) to "boost deficits to about 7% of GDP" through 2034.

CBO Reliability and Political Attacks: There have been concerted efforts by some Republicans to discredit the CBO, claiming it cannot be trusted or is biased.

The first half of 2025 has been "choppy for stocks," with the S&P 500 experiencing a 21.4% drop into bear market territory from mid-February to early-April, followed by a "jarring" rebound.

The market is likely exiting the "Great Moderation" era (positive correlation between bond yields and stock prices) and entering a "Temperamental Era" (more volatile inflation, negative correlation).

A recent "extreme pessimism" reading from the Ned Davis Research Crowd Sentiment Poll (CSP) in early April set up a "near-perfect background conditions for the market to reverse course in the face of a positive catalyst."

Legislative Challenges: The "Megabill" (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) Internal Republican Pushback: Key Policy Conflicts and Sticking Points:

Republicans hope to meet a self-imposed July Fourth deadline for clearing the bill for President Trump’s signature.

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, while not directly involving the U.S. (yet), carries significant political and economic ramifications for the United States:

Restoration of Voice of America's Farsi Service

Trump's Court Victories and Losses. Mahmoud Khalil Detention: A federal judge initially ruled for the release of pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil, Executive Orders on Elections Struck Down: Two federal judges (Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly and Judge Denise Casper) struck down parts of Trump's executive order on elections, affirming that "the states run elections

Trump's approach to immigration reveals a disconnect between public perception of his goals and his actual policies

Donald Trump's financial disclosures highlight the immense profits he is making while in office:

Trump's legal battle with E. Jean Carroll persists:

Peaceful Protests, Isolated Incident: While "thousands of No Kings rallies all over the country on Saturday" were "peaceful," one incident occurred in Salt Lake City.

The NY-17 congressional district is experiencing an unusually early and intense campaign:

D+1 District: The "D+1 district currently represented by Rep. Mike Lawless (R-NY)" is seen by Democrats as a target.

Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg is financially supporting Andrew Cuomo's mayoral bid:

Two new international polls indicate a significant decline in the U.S.'s global standing, particularly under a Republican administration:

Soros-Abedin Wedding: A Democratic Power Gathering

Los Angeles Protests: Information Control, Disinformation, and Political Motivations. Events like riots and battles are inherently difficult to understand in real-time or even with hindsight due to decentralization, chaos, and emotional responses. The Watts Riots of 1965 are used as an example, where basic facts like "Who threw the first punch?" remain unknown. ICE agents rammed a car, used tear gas, and arrested a Latino man, then "fled the scene so quickly," raises questions about procedure and legality. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's press conference saw Senator Alex Padilla "manhandled by federal agents on the scene, up to and including being handcuffed." Real vs. Fake Evidence: Eyewitness Accounts:

Military Parade: The upcoming military parade on June 14, ostensibly for the 250th birthday of the U.S. Army (though the actual date is in 2034, making the current date appear politically motivated), is presented as part of Trump's desire for "military pageantry." The Founding Fathers were "very leery of military power" and "really, really disapproved of military parades."

Iran Nuclear Deal: The administration's approach to Iran is highlighted as a significant failure. Trump "tore up the nuclear deal that Barack Obama reached with Iran" and "then (characteristically) claimed that coming up with a superior agreement would be as easy as pie, has failed miserably." While Trump's first term saw "no major foreign policy crises," the source notes this could be due to luck or others' caution, rather than his strategic success. The current situation in Israel-Iran and Russia-Ukraine could "explode into something very, very bad," which "is going to be on Trump."

Sly Stone and Brian Wilson: Giants of the 1960s. Both died at age 82 this week, recognized as "giants"