Timeline of Main Events

• 1950-2016: Florida experiences an increase of approximately 25 extreme rain events annually.
• 1970-2020: Tide gauge observations are recorded to estimate sea-level rise rates for the eastern Gulf Coast.
• 1982-Present (implied up to Nov 2024): Storm tracks in the Atlantic basin are recorded in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship database.
• 1985-Present (implied up to Nov 2024): Marine heat wave data becomes available and is recorded.
• 1990s: Widespread marine heat waves spanning hundreds of miles begin to be recorded.
• 2006-2015: Florida experiences a decade without a single hurricane strike.
• 2017: Hurricane Harvey strengthens from a tropical depression into a Category 4 hurricane in two days before striking the Texas coast. This year also marks the beginning of an eight-year streak of major Gulf landfalls.
• 2017: Hurricane Irma hits the Gulf Coast with ferocious intensity.
• 2022: Hurricane Ian's wind speeds nearly double in roughly 22 hours before the storm makes landfall in Southwest Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, becoming the costliest hurricane in state history.
• 2023: Hurricane Idalia ravages the Big Bend area of Florida with a 10-foot storm surge.
• 2023: A severe coral bleaching event occurs in Florida, leading to significant coral mortality and prompting NOAA to extend their severity scale.
• 2023: Daily average sea temperatures at Buoy Key, Florida, reach their highest May levels in documented history.
• 2024: Atypical heat continues in the Caribbean throughout the year.
• October 2024: Hurricane Milton strengthens from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in 24 hours as it crosses the Gulf of Mexico northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula.
• October 2024: Hurricane Milton's historic rain floods inland neighborhoods in Pinellas and Hillsborough counties, including Clearwater and parts of North Tampa, with up to 17 inches of rain in five hours. Stormwater pumps fail in some areas.
• May 2025: More than 4,000 daily record high temperature reports occur across the United States, more than double the number of record lows.
• Early May 2025: A deadly Mid-Atlantic atmospheric river occurs, fueled by increased moisture from the marine heat wave.
• May 24, 2025: Sea temperatures near Buoy Key, Florida, reach 98 degrees Fahrenheit.
• May 25, 2025 (last weekend before May 29): Ocean temperatures near 98 degrees are recorded by a buoy in Everglades National Park.
• May 26, 2025 (last Sunday before May 29): Houston sets a new overall monthly record low overnight temperature of 82 degrees.
• May 27, 2025 (last Monday before May 29): Fort Lauderdale, Florida, records a low of 82 degrees, a record for May.
• May 29, 2025: Golf ball-size hail pummel Austin, Texas.
• May 30, 2025 (Last Thursday before May 31): Tampa experiences an 80-degree low temperature, its hottest May morning on record (since 1890). Downpours are expected from Louisiana to Georgia.

CHECK IT OUT HERE…https://youtube.com/@wclivestream

1. Response to Funding Cuts and Policy Changes: The primary driver for the scientists' actions is the substantial cuts to federal agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA, and the Department of Energy, as well as the withholding of research funding to academia by the Trump administration. The CNN article explicitly states this effort is a "response to policy moves" and seen as a form of "resistance to the administration’s changes." The livestream website highlights that the community has been "thwarted in our mission of serving the public due to substantial cuts and firings."
2. "The Scientist-iest" Resistance: Rather than traditional forms of protest, scientists are engaging the public through a multi-day livestream of presentations about their work. Climate scientist Kate Marvel describes this approach as potentially "The scientist-iest thing we could do," emphasizing that it makes sense given their expertise. The goal is to demonstrate the value and impact of their research on the American public.
3. The Weather & Climate Livestream: This is the central initiative discussed in both sources. It is a 100-hour continuous livestream featuring climate and weather specialists giving 15-minute talks about their work.

• Timing: It runs from Wednesday, May 28th at 1 p.m. ET to Sunday, June 1st at 5:30 p.m. ET.
• Goal: To call attention to the impacts of the cuts and demonstrate how their science benefits the public. Marc Alessi of the Union of Concerned Scientists states, "If the American public tunes in, they watch our science talks, they will see how our science benefits the public."
• Format: Includes individual talks, panel discussions (including terminated NOAA employees and former National Weather Service directors), and AMAs (Ask Me Anything) with scientists. Notable participants mentioned include Kate Marvel, Paul Markowski, Ben Santer, Kerry Emanuel, and others.
• Content: The livestream will cover a wide range of topics, including agriculture and climate, hurricanes, ocean heat, the water cycle, air quality, drought, floods, measuring CO2, sea level rise, tornadoes, and more, linking them to federal agencies responsible for these areas (EPA, NOAA, NASA, USDA, UCAR SciEd, USGS).

Above-Normal Season Predicted:

• NOAA's official outlook predicts an above-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin.
• NOAA states a "60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 30% chance of a near-normal season."
• Fox Weather notes that Colorado State University (CSU) also projected an above-average season in their April outlook, with specific numbers slightly higher than historical averages (17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes).

1. NOAA's Specific Forecast Ranges:

• NOAA's annual outlook predicts a range of activity:
• 13 to 19 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher).
• 6 to 10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher).
• 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
• NOAA expresses "70% confidence in these ranges."
• This contrasts with CSU's approach of providing specific numbers, as mentioned by Fox Weather.

1. Comparison to Average Season:

• An average Atlantic season sees "14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes," according to Fox Weather.
• NOAA's predicted ranges for 2025 (13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes) are generally at or above these average numbers.

1. Influencing Factors for the Outlook:

• ENSO-Neutral Conditions: Both sources emphasize the current ENSO-neutral phase (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Fox Weather notes that "ENSO-neutral years are notoriously difficult to predict," but NOAA states that "continued ENSO-neutral conditions" are a factor contributing to the expected above-normal season, alongside other elements.
• Warmer Than Average Ocean Temperatures: This is cited as a significant factor. NOAA explicitly states, "Above-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures set the stage." The NOAA press release notes "warmer than average ocean temperatures" and "high-heat content in the ocean" which "provides more energy to fuel storm development."
• Weaker Wind Shear: NOAA forecasts "weak wind shear," which "allow the storms to develop without disruption."
• West African Monsoon: NOAA mentions the "potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon," which is "a primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes" and can produce "tropical waves that seed some of the strongest and most long-lived Atlantic storms."
• Unusual Cooler Tropical Waters Compared to 2024 (Fox Weather): Fox Weather notes that tropical waters in the Main Development Region are "approximately 2 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than 2024 levels," although still "well above the long-term average." This introduces some uncertainty, though light trade winds could change this quickly.

• May 2025 (Earlier in the month): Five former directors of the National Weather Service write a "letter to the American people" expressing concern about staffing shortages and reduced resources, such as weather balloon deployments.
• May 15, 2025: USA TODAY publishes an article highlighting that National Weather Service offices are short-staffed following Trump administration cuts, with some offices no longer operating 24/7. The article also mentions offers for current employees to transfer to fill 155 vacant positions, including 76 meteorologist positions.
• May 16, 2025 (Thursday): The National Weather Service office in Jackson, Kentucky, recognizing the threat of a major severe weather outbreak, decides to fully staff the overnight shift despite being short-staffed.
• May 17, 2025 (Friday): A severe weather system sweeps through the central U.S., including Missouri and Kentucky.
• Afternoon Rush Hour (St. Louis): The path of destruction from a likely tornado begins on a major thoroughfare in St. Louis before moving east.
• Friday (Throughout the day): A tornado strikes several rural areas in Scott County, Missouri, killing two people and injuring several others.
• Friday (Throughout the day): Five people die and 38 are injured in the St. Louis area. Over 5,000 homes in the city are affected.
• Friday (Overnight into Saturday): A devastating tornado impacts Laurel County, Kentucky, at 11:49 p.m.
• May 17, 2025 (Saturday):
• Morning: As of Saturday morning, at least 21 people have died across Missouri and Kentucky (14 in Kentucky, 7 in Missouri). The death toll is expected to rise.
• Saturday: Rescue teams continue searching for survivors in damaged areas.
• Saturday (Throughout the day): City inspectors in St. Louis begin condemning unsafe structures.
• Saturday evening: Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear confirms at least 18 deaths in Kentucky and speaks at a press conference in London, Kentucky.
• Saturday evening: St. Louis Mayor Cara Spencer confirms five deaths in the city, over 30 injuries, and approximately 5,000 impacted buildings.
• Saturday night (9 p.m. to 6 a.m. Sunday): A curfew is in effect in St. Louis due to downed power lines and to protect property.
• May 18, 2025 (Sunday):
• As of Sunday, the death toll from the recent storms across multiple states exceeds two dozen.
• Sunday: In London, Kentucky, people whose houses were destroyed work to salvage belongings and put up tarps. Zach Wilson describes the scene at his parents' ruined home.
• Sunday: St. Louis Fire Chief Dennis Jenkerson warns residents to prepare for approaching weather.
• Sunday: The National Weather Service warns of a "multitude of hazardous weather" expected over the next several days.
• Sunday: City inspectors continue to assess damaged areas in St. Louis and condemn unsafe structures.
• Sunday: Authorities confirm two storm-related deaths in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., caused by falling trees.
• Sunday: The NWS Employees Union confirms that short staffing at the Jackson, Kentucky office did not affect tornado warnings for the deadly storms.
• Week of May 19, 2025:
• More severe storms are expected to roll across the central U.S.
• Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the afternoon and persist into the evening across parts of the Plains into the Ozarks.
• Another storm system is expected to pick up to the west, with strong tornadoes in the forecast for parts of the Plains by Sunday.

• January 2025: A government-wide hiring freeze begins in the United States, impacting the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its subsidiary, the National Weather Service (NWS).
• February 2025: Approximately 250 NWS employees are fired or take buyouts as part of staffing cuts.
• Sometime between February and May 2025: An additional 300 NWS employees depart the agency, bringing the total number of recent departures and firings to an estimated 500 out of a staff that numbered over 4,200 before President Trump's second term.
• Early May 2025: Five former NWS chiefs issue an open letter warning that the Trump administration's cuts could lead to "a needless loss of life" and that offices are so thinly staffed some roles will have to be filled on a part-time basis.
• Prior to May 14, 2025: NOAA and NWS internal documents reveal a range of open positions across the country. NOAA managers send emails pleading with employees to pursue reassignments, even if they amount to demotions, to fill these gaps. Notices are sent to employees offering to pay moving expenses for staff willing to transfer to critically understaffed offices.
• May 14, 2025:POLITICO first reports on Wednesday morning that NOAA posted 155 job openings at the NWS.
• House Democrats on the Science, Space and Technology Committee, including Rep. Zoe Lofgren and Rep. Gabe Amo, raise alarms about the staffing shortages at the NWS, warning the U.S. is ill-prepared for disasters ahead of hurricane season.
• At a Capitol Hill event, Rep. Zoe Lofgren states that NOAA managers are "frantically trying to fill the gaps" and there appears to be a "panic level" to undo the damage to the weather service. Tom DiLiberto, a former NOAA official, speaks at the event, expressing concern about readiness for hurricane season and highlighting the shuttering of NOAA's database of billion-dollar disasters.
• The Washington Post reports on the NOAA's scramble to fill forecasting jobs, noting the 155 vacancies and that some offices have stopped operating 24 hours a day due to thin staffing. The article mentions offices in California, Kansas, Kentucky, Wyoming, Michigan, Oregon, and Alaska are affected or expected to be affected by overnight closures.
• The Independent reports on the situation, citing CNN's report of 155 jobs the NWS is trying to fill and The Washington Post's report about offering moving expenses. The article also mentions NOAA is retiring its tool to track billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. Dr. Andrew Hazelton, a former Hurricane Hunter who lost his job in the recent layoffs, comments on the situation.
• May 27, 2025 (Deadline): The NWS is seeking to fill the 155 job vacancies by this date.
• June 1, 2025 (Official Start): The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins. Offices in Fairbanks, Alaska, are expected to have overnight closures starting on this date due to vacancies.
• Ongoing in 2025: NOAA staff is expected to fall by 20 percent due to retirements, deferred resignation programs, firings, and a forthcoming reduction-in-force.

The Trump administration is targeting the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Energy Star program for elimination as part of a broader reorganization and deregulatory effort focused on air pollution offices. This move is viewed as a significant step away from the previous administration's focus on climate change and energy efficiency. The Energy Star program, a voluntary labeling initiative for energy-efficient products, has been widely successful in saving consumers money on energy bills and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Its potential demise raises concerns about consumer choice, the ability to identify efficient products, and the future of energy efficiency efforts in the United States.

1. Targeting of the Energy Star Program:

• The core issue is the EPA's plan to eliminate its Energy Star offices as part of a reorganization. This was first reported by CNN and confirmed through agency documents reviewed by the Associated Press.
• The EPA's stated rationale is "delivering organizational improvements to the personnel structure that will directly benefit the American people and better advance the agency's core mission, while Powering the Great American Comeback." (AP/NPR)
• The plan advances President Trump's "sharp turn away from the prior administration's focus on climate change." (AP/NPR)
• Trump's proposed budget specifically asks Congress to eliminate the EPA's entire Atmospheric Protection Program, which houses the Energy Star offices, describing the program as "an overreach of Government authority that imposes unnecessary and radical climate change regulations on businesses and stifles economic growth." (AP/NPR)

1. Success and Popularity of Energy Star:
2. The program is "extraordinarily popular, saves American families about $450 annually and may go away very soon." (The Washington Post)
3. An estimated 90 percent of the public is aware of the Energy Star label. (The New York Times, The Washington Post)
4. Since its start in 1992, the program has reduced energy costs by "more than $500 billion and prevented about 4 billion metric tons of planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions." (AP/NPR, The Washington Post, Canary Media)
5. For every dollar the federal government spends on the program, consumers save an estimated $350. (Canary Media)
6. Energy Star has enjoyed bipartisan support until recently. (Steven Nadel, ACEEE, AP/NPR)
7. It has motivated manufacturers to improve the efficiency of their appliances, with Energy Star-certified appliances now dominating many market segments (e.g., 96% of dishwashers). (The Washington Post)

1. Impact of Energy Star's Potential Elimination:
2. Losing Energy Star will make it "harder for consumers to have trustworthy information about products' energy use." (Sarah Gleeson, Project Drawdown, AP/NPR)
3. Consumers will "have to pay more and work harder to identify which appliances will use the least energy and save the most money." (The Washington Post)
4. Broader "All-Out War on Energy Efficiency":

• The targeting of Energy Star is part of a wider assault on American energy efficiency efforts. (Canary Media)
• Other programs under threat include the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP), which provides financial support to vulnerable households for utility costs and weatherization. The administration has fired staff and proposed eliminating the program. (Canary Media)
• The administration is also targeting efficiency standards for appliances, building codes, and federal buildings, arguing they result in more expensive and less effective products and deny consumer choice. (AP/NPR, Canary Media)

Administration Actions on Climate Science and Data

Date: May 9, 2025

Recent actions by the Trump administration have significantly impacted climate science and data collection efforts in the United States. The administration has dismissed a large number of scientists working on the congressionally mandated National Climate Assessment and ended the public database tracking the cost of billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. These actions are seen by critics as part of a broader effort to downplay the impacts of climate change and limit public access to relevant data, potentially hindering preparedness and understanding of climate risks.

Key Themes and Important Ideas:

• Dismantling of Climate Assessment Infrastructure: The Trump administration dismissed nearly 400 scientists involved in the preparation of the 6th National Climate Assessment (NCA). This report, produced every four years and mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990, is crucial for informing federal, state, local, and private sector responses to climate change. The dismissal of such a large number of experts suggests the next NCA "may not be as extensive as the previous ones."
• Impacting Public Access to Climate Data: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has retired its "billion-dollar weather and climate disasters" database, which has tracked the cost of extreme weather events since 1980. This database was a unique resource, drawing on proprietary and non-public data sources. Its discontinuation makes it "next to impossible for the public to track the cost of extreme weather and climate events" and replicate damage trend analyses, hindering understanding of the increasing financial burden of these events.
• Broader Cuts to Climate-Related Programs and Agencies: The termination of the disaster database and the dismissal of scientists are part of broader staffing reductions and funding cuts within NOAA and other federal agencies involved in climate research. The administration's budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 includes a "24% cut" to NOAA's spending compared to 2025, with plans to potentially "eliminate its research division and clos[e] its weather and climate labs."
• Controversy and Concerns over Motivation: Critics view these actions as a deliberate effort by the Trump administration to undermine climate science and limit public awareness of its impacts. The article notes that the administration "has been laser-focused on killing programs and departments that are associated with 'climate,' whether they are actually tracking global warming and its e`ects or not."
• Efforts to Preserve and Disseminate Scientific Work: In response to the dismissal of scientists from the NCA, two scientific groups, the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society, have announced plans to publish a special collection of climate scientists' work. While not intended to replace the NCA, this collection aims to "ensure the scientists' work can be accessed."

Supporting Quotes:

• On the dismissal of scientists from the NCA: "After the Trump administration dismissed nearly 400 scientists who compile the nation's major quadrennial report on the impacts of climate change in the U.S., two scienti!c groups announced a plan to publish a special collection focused on the subject to ensure the scientists' work can be accessed." (CBS News, "After Trump dismisses hundreds of scientists...")

What is a WSR-88D radar and what does it do?

The WSR-88D, or Weather Surveillance Doppler Radar, is an advanced radar system used by the National Weather Service (NWS) to detect weather phenomena. It transmits a powerful beam of energy and listens for the scattered energy that bounces back from objects in the atmosphere, such as raindrops, snowflakes, hail, dust, birds, and even insects. By analyzing the returned signal's strength, the time it took to travel, and its phase shift, the radar can gather information about precipitation and wind speed. This allows meteorologists to track storms, identify potential hazards like tornadoes, and issue timely warnings. The WSR-88D system has been in operational use since the 1990s across the United States and its territories.

How does the Doppler effect relate to the WSR-88D radar?

The WSR-88D is a Doppler radar because it utilizes the Doppler effect. This effect, named after Christian Doppler, describes the change in frequency of a wave in relation to an observer who is moving relative to the wave source. In the case of the radar, the radar beam is the wave, and objects in the atmosphere (like raindrops) are the wave sources reflecting the signal. As these objects move towards or away from the radar, the phase (or frequency) of the reflected signal changes. The radar's computers measure this phase change and convert it into a velocity, indicating whether the object is moving towards or away from the radar and at what speed. This ability to "see" wind motion is crucial for detecting the rotation within thunderstorms that can lead to tornadoes.

Is everything seen on a WSR-88D radar image actual precipitation?

No, not everything displayed on a WSR-88D radar image represents precipitation. While the radar is designed to detect precipitation, it can also pick up signals from other objects. Common non-precipitation echoes include "ground clutter" from the earth's surface or buildings near the radar, "anomalous propagation" (AP) when the radar beam bends towards the ground, "sea return" from ocean waves, and returns from biological targets like migrating birds and insects. Aircraft also appear as "point targets." While automated systems attempt to filter out some of these non-precipitation echoes, especially in products like precipitation accumulation, awareness of the general weather situation helps users differentiate between precipitation and other targets.

What recent security threats have been directed towards NWS weather radars?

Recent internal emails from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) security office indicate that National Weather Service offices are on guard due to threats targeting Doppler weather radars. A group identified as Veterans on Patrol, described as an anti-government militia organization, views these radars as "weather weapons." This group has advocated for conducting "penetration drills" on radar sites to identify weaknesses for potential destruction. While the specific beliefs of the group regarding the radars' function as "weather weapons" are unclear, the threats are being taken seriously by NOAA, and law enforcement agencies like the FBI are reportedly aware and tracking the situation. These threats coincide with staffing shortages at the NWS, particularly concerning radar maintenance technicians.